There has always been something a bit elitist about the Oscars - a bunch of rich, famous people wearing $50,000 sunglasses lounging inside a dark theater sipping Champagne, winking at other rich and famous friends, and getting handed trophies because they did an impression of an anonymous, poor person with Down’s Syndrome.

There was a disconnect. We wanted to be like these people, but all they know about us is that we eat tater tots and wore pants that show our waist size on the exterior. Occasionally, they mate with us and create hybrid famous / non-famous babies who usually end up confessing something terrible to Mary Hart on “Entertainment Tonight” before their 40th birthday because of their resulting identity crisis. But that’s all about to change!

Because the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences expanded the Best Picture field from five to 10 movies, us regular folks don’t have to worry about some wading through some artsy fartsy period romances in order to enjoy the awards. Now we can see our popcorn movie explosions, animated tales of wonderment and a sassy Sandra Bullock, too.

(This was the worst idea ever.)

With that said, let's handicap all the big 2009 Oscar races (note: hyperlinked movies go to my movie reviews):

Best picture

Who’s nominated:
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

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Who will win: “Avatar”
James Cameron’s blue 3D experiment is still considered an underdog, but it has a ton of momentum. On the day Oscar nominations were announced, the sci-fi epic broke “Titanic’s” domestic box office record with $601 million. And it killed at the Golden Globes. Don’t think Oscar doesn’t want a movie with such mainstream appeal to win its top prize the same year it opens the field to get Joe Straphanger and Suzie Hayseed to tune in as they hover over Hungry-Man chicken pot pies.

Who should win: “Up in the Air”
“Up in the Air” is a movie about soul searching and starting over. Clooney & Co.’s dark comedy is funny, poignant and the recession is something that everyone can relate to. Well, everyone except James Cameron, who uses cash as Post-it notes now. "Up in the Air" buoyed by strong  performances and Director Jason Reitman (“Juno”) never gets too heavy-handed with the messages or the angst. But I have a bad feeling that George Clooney’s quaff of chest hair will sing the “blues” come Oscar night; unlike “Avatar,” “Up in the Air” is much, much worse when watched on drugs.

Best actor

Who’s nominated:
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Who will win: Jeff Bridges
The Dude picks up a bottle and a guitar, and rides into the sunset. I think it will work out better for Bridges than for Joaquin Phoenix / Johnny Cash.

Who should win: Anyone except Morgan Freeman.
I love Morgan Freeman as a penguin documentary narrator, credit card spokesperson and peaceable inmate at Shawshank State Prison. But here his Nelson Mandela impersonation is more fitting for a roast of the South African leader than a bio-epic.

Best actress

Who’s nominated:
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

Who will win: Sandra Bullock
I just have a hunch. “The Blind Side” was a critical and box office surprise. It’s rare when the feel good movie of the year is also a feel good story for investors and production companies. I just don’t know how I feel about “Miss Congeniality” or “The Net’s” Ruth Marks holding an Oscar. Or having that Oscar being used as a kickstand by Jesse James. Or used by Keanu to hold the bus’ gas pedal down. I wonder if the DVD release of 2009’s hands-down worst flick, “All About Steve,” will remind everyone that she is, in fact, Sandra Bullock, and that these are the types of movies she usually makes. Then again, the “Stealth” movie trailer didn’t scare away Academy members from voting for Jamie Fox’s turn as Ray Charles.

Who should win: Meryl Streep
I’m pretty sure Julia Child is more popular now than she ever was before. Streep, who has two Oscars and 16 nominations, inhabits characters like no other. And her turn as the idiosynchratic, larger-than-life, ex-pat wannabe French chef is wildly entertaining. At this point, I think Streep could star in a Statue of Liberty bio-epic – as lady liberty – and still wow audiences. She’s that damn good.

Best supporting actor

Who’s nominated:
Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

Who will win: Christoph Waltz
It’s the best performance I’ve seen of any kind in 2009. And those who are smarter and more experienced than me are saying the same thing. The Jew Hunter may not sell a lot of T-Shirts in South Florida, but you can’t make everyone happy.

Who should win: Christoph Waltz
This is a stone cold lock. Woody finishes a strong second and the little-seen flick “The Messenger,” about the soldiers back home who break bad news to families, is definitely worth looking out for on DVD and On-Demand.

Best supporting actress

Who's nominated:
Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Who will win: Mo’Nique
Despite the flap over the comedienne not promoting her movie enough, her Golden Globes acceptance speech was touching and sincere. This win has been prognosticated for months and I don’t see any way she loses, unless a “Soul Plane 2” teaser trailer starts making the rounds.

Who should win: Anna Kendrick
Talk about a step up from coach to first class; Kendrick went from slummin’ it as a “Twilight” background character to working as George Clooney’s corporate sidekick in "Up in the Air." She reminds me of Reese Witherspoon in “Election,” and you want to slap her character just as hard until her uppity, ambitious alter ego mellows out a bit.

Best director

Who’s nominated:
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
Lee Daniels, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air

Who will win: James Cameron
I’d be fine with Cameron taking Best Director honors and leaving the Best Picture race to the movies that were actually movies, and not multi-sensory attractions you can’t enjoy if you’re pregnant or have a heart condition.

Who should win: Kathryn Bigelow
A lot has been made about two facts: Bigelow is Cameron’s ex-wife, and she directed the sublime ‘90s flick “Point Break.” Those two reasons alone should be enough to root for her. Add to that the “The Hurt Locker” is a taut, gritty modern wartime tale that doubles as a character study into an amped up bomb tech / action addict played by Jeremy Renner.

The Oscars, hosted by Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin, will air March 7 on ABC from the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. Stay tuned for our real-time Oscar blog.

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