Black Friday’s sexy siren song may sadly beckon fewer shoppers to its Short Pump suburban oasis and Stony Point rushing river perch.

Unemployment checks and layaway plans have replaced bonuses and instant financing this season. Boones Farms is the Thanksgiving table wine of choice. And nervous retailers are hoping that the peak shopping season will keep the lights on on at corporate headquarters. 

Hold on. Stop the hype. Let’s crunch the numbers.

According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. consumers are only expected to spend 1 percent less than they did during their $437.6 billion spree last season. So that means people will only behave 1 percent better in Wal-Mart lobbies and that your local Target’s $1 section will only be 1 percent less picked over. Big whoop.

The malls will still be crowded. The parking lots will still be overflowing. And there will still be a 45-min. line to test drive the massaging recliner at Brookstone.

Here are some tips for not just surviving, but thriving on Black Friday this year:

• Don’t be afraid to haggle. I’m not just talking about working your put-on Arab trader mystique at farmers’ markets and mom and pop stores. I’m talking about negotiating with frontline workers at mega-retailers. The price tag on that Dale Jr. halogen lamp may read $49.99, but who says they won’t take $39.99? And what are they going to do about it! Barter your slam poetry sonnets for DVDs at Best Buy. Offer to wash dishes at Ruth’s Chris in exchange for a tasty T-bone. Trade piano lessons for that Pier 1 ottoman. Do it how the pioneers swapped schwag at the ole hitchin' post.

• Bring a mob survival kit. Last year showed us that humans fueled by capitalistic urges and Rollback pricing can cause carnage on aisle 3. That’s why you need to bring a plastic bag with a whistle, an airplane seat cushion, Duct tape, granola bars and a bike helmet – just in case you need to brace for a rogue wave of lemming shoppers. Ironically, all of these items are available cheaply at Wal-Mart.

•  Get by the credit crunch with a fanny pack. And keep your cash hidden in it like a Disney World tourist (Although that Mickey is quite a pick pocket.) Some studies estimate that 80 percent of shoppers plan on using cash instead of credit cards this year. Why pay for something now when you can pay 10 times the cost over the next 72 months? What about the unbridled ecstasy of really, really hoping that $300 Crate & Barrel chafing dish purchase will be approved by the all-knowing Discover Card computer? Being responsible isn't really much fun, is it?

• Take Carytown by horseback: You’re not going to find a parking spot. Your bicycle will likely be stolen by a vagrant and turned into a hobo RV. And walking with all those bulky shopping bags has proven to cause shingles and muggings. But just imagine the regal majesty of arriving to The World of Mirth or Plan 9 on a faithful steed, groomed to the nines and ready to squire you from shop to shop. Just be sure not to tie it up behind one of Carytown’s 37 Thai restaurants. And don’t name it General Tso. Just in case.

• Remember Legends of the Fall: In the frenzy of spending a payday loan on an ex boy-friend you’re trying to woo and win back, it’s easy to forget the retailers we danced with in the days of yore who have since fallen – Circuit City, Service Merchandise, Woolworths, et al. Spill some of your 40 oz. or diet unsweetened iced tea in the food court fountain in remembrance of the ghosts of Black Friday past. And don’t forget Richmond’s lost malls, including Cloverleaf Mall, Willow Lawn and Regency. Wait, those last two are still open? Someone tell the vultures they’re just resting.

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